Global carbon dioxide emissions is expected to continue to rise this year as well, further narrowing down the window of opportunity to keep the temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degree Celsius, a new report released at the climate meeting on Thursday said.
At current trends, there was at least a 50 per cent chance that the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature target would be exceeded in the next nine years, the Global Carbon Project, which comes up with country level estimates of CO2 emissions every year during the climate conference, said. CO2 is the most common among the six major greenhouse gas emissions that are causing global warming.
The total carbon dioxide emissions, excluding those from land use changes and deforestation, are likely to be around 36.6 billion tonnes, about one per cent higher than the previous year, the report said. CO2 released from land use changes like deforestation would likely contribute another 3.9 billion tonnes, it said.
Among major emitters, India is estimated to see the biggest rise in its CO2 emissions, about 6 per cent from last year. Emissions are expected to decrease by about one per cent in China, the world’s largest emitter, and the European Union which, as a group is the third biggest emitter. But the United States, the world’s second biggest emitter it is projected to increase by 1.5 per cent, the report said.
“In India, the emissions in 2022… are driven mostly by a 5 per cent increase in coal emissions. Emissions from oil are up sharply, with a projected rise of 10 per cent. Projections from natural gas are projected to decline 4 per cent but contribute little to the total change as gas is a small part of the energy mix in India,” a statement from the Global Carbon Project said.
Global CO2 emissions had dropped significantly in 2020, compared to the previous year, due to the Covid19 pandemic, and had shown a marginal increase last year. This year’s emissions are likely to go beyond the 2019 levels, the report said.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its report released earlier this year, had said that global emissions (of all greenhouse gases combined, not just CO2) needed to peak by the year 2025 if the world had to retain any realistic chances of keeping the rise in temperatures below 1.5 degree Celsius.
A couple of months later, the World Meteorological Organisation that there was a 50 per cent chance that the global temperatures would temporarily go beyond 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times within the next five years.